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Based on the weight of the evidence, the trend is pointing toward higher prices. We want to be buyers on any pullbacks as long as we remain above our key risk levels.
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Within the Emerging Markets space, it’s also worth noting that Vietnam is already pushing toward new highs ahead of the Latin America ETFs and Freeport mentioned above. I see this as relative strength within a broader area of strength. Momentum is also holding in a solid bullish range, which is exactly what we want to see. We like this setup. We want to stay long on $VNM as long as it’s above 17, with a target above 23.50.
I think keeping an eye on Caterpillar is a smart move. If we’re above 146, we want to stay long on $CAT with a target around 185. If we’re right about $CAT, then chances are we’re right about everything else as well. However, if $CAT falls below 146, it likely means that this entire bullish thesis is incorrect—at least for now.
It should come as no surprise that Brazil looks almost identical. It’s essentially the same trade, but the key risk level here is 43.50. In $EWZ, I also believe we’re heading back to those September 2014 highs.
Another one that fits right into this theme is Freeport-McMoRan. Notice how it’s showing a similar consolidation within an uptrend. Also, take a look at how momentum remains in a bullish range. This applies to all three: $ILF, $EWZ, and $FCX, as you can see here. They all have significant exposure to Natural Resources and Mining, which has been a key focus for us going into the year. We've been looking to stay long on $FCX as long as it's above 17, and I still believe we're on track to reach 24.
It’s important to remember that institutions managing $10, $20, or even $50 billion need to buy millions of shares just to establish a relatively small position within their enormous portfolios. Filling an order takes time—days, weeks, or even months. Retail investors can simply press a button and execute an entire trade instantly. Institutions don’t have that luxury, so if we pay close attention, we can actually see the accumulation process happening. When stocks are selling off, those that remain green and hold their ground are clear signs of buy-side accumulation.
Today, I want to discuss some of the emerging markets where we’re seeing relative strength. As a responsible market participant, I can’t ignore what’s happening in this space. Plus, you guys rely on me to do the research and highlight what stands out.
The first chart is the Latin America 40 Index. That 2014 high has been our target for a while now, and I still believe that’s where we’re headed—more than 15% above current levels. That’s not insignificant. If we stay above 36 in $ILF, then Latin America in general, as well as this ETF, remains a buying opportunity. I believe we’ll return to those 2014 highs.
It’s Time For Emerging Market Stocks To Make A Move
It’s hard to ignore the strength we’re seeing in some of these emerging markets. When stocks are selling off, I like to look around and see which ones are holding up well. This concept is known as “relative strength.” Every day, I speak with traders at the largest financial institutions in the world. They often laugh because while everyone else is selling, they get to sit there pressing buy buttons, filling their massive orders as they accumulate positions.